Holding game

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The Edmonton Oilers finally showed some signs of life on the weekend with a 4-0 win over the Kraken in Seattle. Easily the most complete game they’ve played, with the team doing a much better job at controlling the flow of play, generating chances and playing well defensively as a unit.

Hopefully it’s a sign of things to come, because they definitely have some work to do to get back into proper form. They currently sit tenth in the western conference with a points percentage of 0.519, and tied for fifth in the Pacific division.

The struggles remain at even-strength (5v5), where the Oilers have posted a -16 goal differential and a 43 percent goal-share that currently ranks 30th in the league. Their underlying shot-share numbers have been pretty mediocre all season. Their team shooting percentage is 23rd, and their team save percentage is dead last. Thankfully their powerplay has kept their season afloat, generating the second highest rate of goals per hour. And it appears sustainable as the club has been generating some of the highest rate of shots and scoring chances with the man-advantage.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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Colorado is just lapping the league right now, it’s pretty fun to watch. Aside from them though, there’s no one that really stands out in the west. Teams like Dallas and Minnesota are having a lot of success, but they’re due for some regression when some of the players eventually cool off. Anaheim has been a nice surprise, and they along with LA and Vegas appear to have some staying power. Utah could make a run if they figure out their special teams. It really is a blessing for Edmonton that the rest of the conference has been pretty tame. Seattle, Chicago and San Jose should drop off shortly, and Winnipeg looks a little phony too. Nashville isn’t going anywhere. And Vancouver and Calgary can eat dirt.

The Oilers basically have to be a top five team in the league going forward to secure a playoff spot, which might be possible considering the star power they have. But they’ll need to fix up a lot of their tactical issues and get (even) league-average goaltending to have a real shot. Again we saw some positives against Seattle, but they’ll need to string together a winning streak to make some ground. I’m waiting to see a set of ten straight games where their shot-share numbers are above 53 percent (like last season) to have confidence that they’re back in form.

Evaluating individual players

Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers so far sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

On the backend, Nurse continues to struggle as the team just bleeds chances when he’s on the ice. He basically needs to be stapled to one or both of the glimmer twins to provide value, but he remains a liability. Kulak and Regula have also posted some ugly results, but both could eventually bounce back once the defence is more in sync with the forwards. Bouchard and Ekholm will be fine.

Up front, Mangiapane’s results really stand out, but it may continue considering his underlying numbers. Same with Frederic. And I do expect Savoie’s results to slide a little – maybe the grind is getting to him. Hyman’s clearly not in top form yet, but with more home games coming up, I do expect better underlying numbers and results. Could also be the fact that he’s carrying around Frederic who tends to drag most linemates he has. Also – temper any expectations on Clattenburg. Fun player to watch and his development will be a story. But he’s also a raw rookie with plenty to learn in the AHL, so there’s no harm sending him down and getting a look at some other prospects in Bakersfield who are thriving right now.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Systemic power outage

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Pretty dreadful situation the Edmonton Oilers are currently in as they sit fifth in the Pacific with a 0.524 points percentage and a -12 goal-differential. Their situation is especially dire at even-strength (5v5) where they currently have a goal-differential of -16, a goal-share of only 41% that’s second worst in the league.

Key issues at even-strength:

  • Corsi for percentage is 49% (17th in the league)
  • Expected goals for percentage is 47% (25th)
  • Shooting percentage is 7.88% (28th)
  • Save percentage is 87.55% (32nd)

There are also the current issues that have come up countless times now in the Oilers’ McDavid era – and well documented on this website and elsewhere:

  • Struggling to perform and produce without McDavid on the ice
  • Playing too conservatively when holding any sort of lead.
  • Too many shots from the defencemen
  • Reverting to the McDavid/Draisaitl pairing when under any duress.
  • Lack of opportunity for younger/developing players.
  • Horrible on-ice numbers from players who have a history of posting horrible on-ice numbers, and continuing to overplay them (i.e., Nurse)

This is more than enough evidence to suggest that the team needs significant changes, and I wouldn’t be shy to look at the coaching staff first. The roster has had a lot of changes, and they were without Hyman for the start of the season. But there’s enough talent on the roster to ice a consistent, competitive team. If the team was at least posting some respectable shot-share and expected goal numbers, I’d let the results slide and expect some regression. But because the team is struggling to generate offence, which is what the coaching staff has direct influence on, it might be time for a coaching change.

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Digging into the offensive numbers a little more, it’s quite alarming that the team is only generating 38 unblocked shot attempts per hour, which ranks 22nd in the league. Last season, the Oilers ranked third with 45 unblocked shot attempts per hour, only behind Carolina and Florida. The season before that, the Oilers were second in the league with 46, only behind Carolina. The Edmonton Oilers have basically seen their rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by about 17 percent from the last few seasons.

What should really be unsettling for the Oilers front office is the fact that even Connor McDavid’s on-ice numbers have dropped. His current on-ice rate of 43 shot attempts per hour is a steep drop from 52, which he posted last season, and 55 that he posted the season before. In short, the best player in the world has seen his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by around 20 percent in this coaching staff’s system. And yes, even without Nurse, his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts is still only 45.

Knoblauch and his group have really dropped the ball this season and will need to make some critical adjustments. The results at even-strength are some of the worst in the league, and a lot of the underlying issues fall within the coaching staff’s scope of expertise. There’s still time to turn things around, but it’s going to require less stubbornness and panicking – attributes that this head coach might have trouble shaking off.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Adjusting the blinders

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Sluggish start to the regular season with the Edmonton Oilers currently sitting fifth in the Pacific division with a points percentage of 0.542 after 12 games. A 5-4-3 record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence – especially with the team shooting and save percentage below league average levels and a number of players in high-profile positions struggling at different points.

But it’s important to supplement any evaluation of the team’s current results with predictive metrics — the kind that help us understand where things might be headed.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology

The Oilers’ underlying numbers

The Oilers are sitting tenth in the western conference, with fairly average underlying shot-share metrics. They’ve been rather inconsistent in controlling overall share shots and scoring chances.

The good news is (1) they’re not horrible, hovering around 50 percent when it comes to Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals. And (2) the coaching staff has everything they need to get these numbers up. It’s just a matter of being less stubborn with player deployment and tactical choices.

The shooting percentage should eventually improve, there’s just too much talent on the roster. It’s harder to have confidence in the team’s save percentage. Skinner currently ranks below league average levels when it comes to save percentage and goals-saved-above-average. It’s an ongoing issue for a few seasons now, documented extensively on this website, so it’s really up to management to address this.

Tactical adjustments

One rather simple adjustment is to have the glimmer twins on their own lines – which has proven to be a successful tactic for a few years now. Currently the team is posting a 43 percent Expected Goals for percentage when McDavid or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. Which means it’s not going to end well if the coach keeps going to the Easter Line as often as he has. Hyman coming back in the next week or so will be a boost as well.

The other thing the team needs to change up is how they play when leading. Rather than playing conservatively and sitting back to avoid mistakes, the team should be pushing for more offence like the other top clubs do, including Carolina, Colorado and New Jersey. The best defence is playing more often in the opponents zone, and the team has the players to do this effectively. For whatever reason, the coaching staff has everyone playing a little too safe – it just comes across as panicky.

Evaluating individual players

To assess individual performances and results, I’ve put together the tables below sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

First off, it’s important to address Bouchard here as he’s taken a significant amount of heat for some poor plays. No doubt, he’s had some rough moments. But it’s important to remember that the team tends to outshoot and outchance opponents when he’s on the ice. So it’s really just a matter of time before that on-ice goal differential improves. There’s enough of a track record with the player to trust the underlying process and believe that better results will come.

I’d be more worried about Nurse, who once again has struggled to have a positive impact on the team’s ability to generate scoring chances. If there’s anyone who should have their ice time dialed back, it’s probably him.

Up front, I’d be a little worried about the depth guys including Frederic. He’s had his moments, but there’s not a whole lot to his game, especially when he’s deployed as a center. And young guys like Howard and Savoie need to be given some rope here so management can know what they have in them. Their on-ice numbers have not been great, which isn’t overly surprising. But they need a long stretch with the star players to give them some reps. Again, not sure why the coaching staff has been so reluctant and stubborn when it comes to developing youth.

Thoughts

There’s always going to be a lot of noise around the Edmonton Oilers – it’s just the nature of professional sports. But it’s important to apply a critical lens when reading or listening to the analysis available. Yes, players are struggling and their results show it. But there’s also enough data and information available to help cut through some of the narratives. Simple stats like PDO are especially important as it can tell us if the player’s results are real or not, and what their future outcomes could look like. Use it often, and you can avoid a lot of mistakes in your evaluations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Why Connor McDavid might settle for a short-term deal in Edmonton or nothing at all

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It’s understandable why some Edmonton Oilers fans are feeling a little more than anxious these days with Connor McDavid still unsigned for the 2026-27 season and beyond. With the team’s recent playoff runs, championship expectations are sky high. But that could all be derailed if the team’s generational talent doesn’t make a formal commitment to the club.

While it’s easy to see the McDavid contract situation from a fan’s perspective, it’s good to at least try to see things from the player and agent perspective. There are plenty of reasons to stay in Edmonton with the teammates, and the positive direction things are going. But where the Oilers organization has failed, McDavid is consistently building a proper team around him. And we can assess this by looking at how the team has performed on the ice when McDavid hasn’t been deployed. 

In the ten seasons that McDavid has been with Edmonton, the team has only out-scored opponents twice without him on the ice at even-strength (five on five). And we use even-strength minutes since that’s the game’s natural state when all players are involved and the team is playing offence and defense. It’s where the majority of the game is played, and makes the with-or-without-you (WOWY) analysis more accurate.

The bar graph below has two sets of data, broken down by each season that McDavid has been an Oiler. The first set in orange is the team’s expected goal differential at even-strength (based on the shots and scoring chances generated and allowed by the team – source) without McDavid on the ice by season. And the second set in blue is the actual goal differential without McDavid on the ice.

Let’s start with the actual goal differential (the blue bars). Last season, the Oilers scored 100 goals and allowed 115 without McDavid on the ice at even-strength – a goal-differential of -15 (or a 46 percent goal-share). With McDavid, they were naturally on the positive side, posting a +12 goal differential, or a 55 percent goal-share. This led to the team posting a team goal-differential of -3, a 49 percent goal-share that ranked 18th in the league. The two regular seasons prior, the team was actually pretty good without McDavid – a +7 goal differential in 2023-24 and a +10 goal differential the year before. But before that – yikes. It’s largely on McDavid’s back that the team had any success.

A big reason why the team was so bad without McDavid is that the players they had did a terrible job at controlling the flow of play and were consistently outshot and outchanced – as represented by their expected goal differential (the orange bars). What exacerbated things was the fact that the team posted a shooting percentage well below league levels. And their goaltending was often subpar as well. There were even times where the expected goal differential was slightly in the negatives, but the actual goal differential was even worse because the roster construction and talent level on the team just weren’t good enough.

So if there’s talk about McDavid wanting to wait and see how things go this season and only considering a short-term extension, this is why. The team has made significant strides recently to bolster its front office, including scouting and analytics. But it might be hard for a player to ignore the full ten seasons and recognize that there’s been a lot more rough times than good times. The roster construction hasn’t been good enough for the majority of the time McDavid has been here, and the prospect pool isn’t looking great either – so it’s probably difficult for the player to have faith in the team’s ownership going forward.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Depreciating Assets: Oilers’ Adam Henrique at risk of being passed on depth chart this season

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With the Edmonton Oilers’ rookie camp underway and the full training camp starting next week, it’s hard not to think about the potential roster construction and line combinations for the upcoming regular season.

There’s some good young talent that appears to be ready to make the jump to the national league. And there are also a lot of more established, professional-level players who are competing for critical roster spots. With all the players being added, it’s become pretty obvious that some of the regular players from last season are either going to see their minutes be reduced or potentially be replaced completely, especially those further down the lineup.

It’s a harsh reality in the professional ranks, especially for those who are on the decline in their careers and have seen their numbers take a hit in recent seasons. Teams need to find any edge, even the slightest improvements. This is especially true if you’re a club pushing for a Stanley Cup Championship.

One player in particular who is at risk of being replaced this season is 35-year-old forward Adam Henrique. Drafted in the third round in 2008, Henrique has had a solid career, putting up over 500 points in 15 NHL seasons, and is closing in on the 1,000-game mark.

But over the last few seasons, Henrique has…

  • seen his point production decline;
  • been negatively impacting his team’s ability to control shots and scoring chances at even-strength; and
  • hasn’t had a positive impact on the special teams, specifically the penalty kill.

Combine these current issues with the fact that he’s in the last season of his contract that pays him $3 million (with a no movement clause courtesy of Ken Holland) and the fact that contending teams need to be more creative to enhance their rosters due to the latest CBA changes — it’s not looking great for Henrique.

Productivity at even-strength (five-on-five)

Last regular season, Henrique put up nine goals and eight assists in 81 games and finished 10th among Oiler forwards with seventeen points at even-strength. This converts into a points per hour rate of only 1.07, which ranked 14th among Oiler forwards, and was in replacement-level territory. This rate was the lowest in Henrique’s career, and well below the 1.62 rate that he’d posted over the course of his career heading into last season.

Here’s how Henrique has produced since entering the league as a full-time player in 2011 as a 22-year-old. This is broken down by season and the team he played for, and also includes his age that season. He was fairly consistent in recent seasons, putting up second or third-line level production in Anaheim and Edmonton.

It’s worth noting that while Henrique did post a rate of 1.93 points per hour in the 2023/24 season with Edmonton, he was riding a 108 PDO, indicating that a lot of his success was luck-driven. His on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage were well above normal levels, and it was bound to eventually crash back down to earth. This past 2024/25 season in Edmonton, his PDO was 99.8, which is right around league-average levels.

Negative impact on the team’s even-strength performance

Now, an argument could be made that Henrique didn’t have the best linemates last season, or that he wasn’t put into offensive situations. But the other harsh reality is that when Henrique was on the ice, and often against the other team’s lesser competition, the Oilers would typically get outshot and outchanced. Whoever he was on a line with or whoever was on the blueline with him would typically see their on-ice numbers crater when Henrique was deployed – indicating that it was likely a Henrique-issue rather than a team-wide issue.

In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique’s on-ice numbers were significantly worse relative to the team’s levels, and that’s across all shot types.

For instance, with Henrique on the bench, the Oilers posted an Expected Goals For percentage of 57 percent. But when Henrique was deployed, that number dropped to 47 percent. That transferred into the post-season as well as Henrique’s on-ice expected goal-share was at 46 percent, while the team posted a share of 52 percent. Among all the forwards who played for Edmonton the last two seasons, Henrique’s shot share numbers were consistently at the bottom of the list.

Not so special on special teams

Henrique did have the coach’s trust on the penalty kill, which should work in his favor when he competes for a roster spot this upcoming season. In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique played the fourth-most minutes among forwards on the penalty kill and the fourth-highest rate of minutes per game. His experience will definitely be an asset that the team will rely on.

What the coaching staff should hopefully be aware of is that the Oilers often saw the rate of shots and chances against increase whenever he was on the ice. Among the twelve forwards who played at least 20 minutes on the penalty kill the last two seasons, Henrique’s on-ice rate of shots and shot attempts against were the third highest. With Henrique on the ice, the Oilers saw their rate of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick) increase by 12 per hour, an 18 percent increase relative to the team levels. If the Oilers are looking for improvement on the penalty kill, options are coming into training camp that should get a look.

Final Thoughts

The goal is a championship, and every move must be geared towards that. There’s going to be a lot of options for management and the coaching staff to build an optimal roster, with a good array of skillsets and experience to pick from.  And it’s no secret that the Oilers badly need an influx of youth, especially if they want to sustain their success and compete for cups.

There’s a chance Henrique has a great camp and solidifies a role in the middle six order up front and sees his numbers bounce back to previous seasons. But knowing what we know about aging curves among NHL players, and the fact that he’s been declining for a couple of seasons now — both in terms of point production and on-ice performance — it’s hard to make that bet. Plus, teams need to find new, creative ways to allocate their dollars more efficiently heading into the playoffs, making Henrique’s contract enticing to move.

The hope is that management is actively looking for and identifying gaps in their roster and addressing their issues to ensure that they keep pace with the other contenders in the league. And hopefully we see some realistic options emerge in camp and at the start of the season. It’s going to be critical.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Priming Game: How much does Evan Bouchard mean to the Oilers?

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One of the most common questions I got from hockey fans and even non-hockey fans this past summer was whether or not defenceman Evan Bouchard is worth his new four-year, $42 million contract.

It’s obviously a significant sum of money for a player who has often been picked on for his defensive lapses. But there’s also enough evidence to indicate that he’s a solid contributor to the team, and not just with the points he’s consistently put up. Whatever the case, Bouchard is going to serve as yet another good example of how defencemen are often evaluated incorrectly.

In this exercise, we’ll just focus on the player and try to answer a rather simple question: “Is this guy good?”

I’ve learned over the many years that I’ve been covering professional hockey is to try and lay out your criteria before answering open-ended questions like this. It makes it significantly easier as a writer to put together a (hopefully) influential piece. And it can help drive a discussion if people know where the original goal posts are.  “Good” means different things to different people. And the criteria will depend on the player’s role and can also be impacted by key contextual information like the team’s current state and where they are in their path to a championship.

When evaluating defencemen who are on heavier contracts like Bouchard, I have some pretty straight-forward criteria – all of which align with teams winning games.

  • The player must be playing regular minutes against the other team’s top competition at even-strength (5v5).
  • The player must have a positive impact on the team’s shot and scoring chance differentials at even-strength (5v5).
  • The player must have a positive impact when playing with their own team’s depth players, as in when superstar players like McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench.

What’s missing from here is actual point production. Regarding defencemen, a smart guy once said, “points aren’t offence”. To measure a defenceman’s offensive contributions, it’s better to look at the actions of the player that helped increase the team’s odds of outscoring opponents. And part of that can be captured by reviewing the team’s ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances, which is captured in the criteria above. Points are the by-product and can always be influenced by a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage, making it somewhat difficult to predict as it’s not a repeatable skill. If you’re paying for talent, always pay for their performance, not the results. Pardon the slight digression.

Time on Ice

Evan Bouchard has gradually seen his minutes climb since entering the national league, now averaging 23.5 minutes (all situations) per game as a 25-year-old and establishing himself as a top pairing defenceman. He finished 25th in the league in average ice time per game among defencemen in the 2024/25 regular season.

What’s most impressive has been the gradual increase in his proportion of even-strength minutes against the opposing team’s best players.

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Based on PuckIQ’s data, Bouchard played just over 29 percent of his total even-strength minutes against elite-level competition last year and almost 32 percent the year before. That has him second on the team behind Matias Ekholm, with whom he regularly partnered on the top pairing, and among the other top pairing defencemen in the league. Bouchard has clearly gained the trust of the coaching staff and has taken these critical minutes away from other struggling players like Nurse, who has seen his share of minutes against elite players drop drastically over the last few years.

The added bonus to all of this is the fact that Bouchard’s on-ice numbers against elite players have been excellent. He posted an on-ice Corsi For percentage of 57 percent this past season against elite competition and 59 percent the season before. Not sure what else you can ask for from a defenceman when they’re helping control the flow of play and keeping the puck away from the opposing team’s best players.

Driving Offence

What we’ve also seen from Bouchard, pretty much every year now, is that when he’s on the ice, the Oilers improve their ability to out-shoot and out-chance opponents. Last season, the Oilers posted an Expected Goal-share of 54.46 percent at even-strength, which was fourth best in the league. Without Bouchard on the ice, this number dropped to 52 percent. But with him, it jumped to about 58 percent. So relative to the team, Bouchard’s on-ice expected goals for percentage was a +5.79.

What’s especially impressive is that this has been the case since he started getting regular minutes, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Whether it’s shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, or scoring chances, the team sees their numbers consistently improve when he hits the ice.

Have to point out here as well that in those limited games early on his career in the 2018/19 season, Bouchard was showing glimpses of his potential impact. Definitely one of the many missed opportunities by the previous management regimes.

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Supporting the Depth Players

Now, the obvious rebuttal to these strong on-ice numbers posted by Bouchard is that he gets to play prime minutes with guys like McDavid and Draisaitl, who have their own magic fairy dust. But what’s impressive is that even when Bouchard doesn’t have one or both Glimmer Twins with him, the Oilers’ on-ice numbers are still better than 50 percent.

Last season, when Bouchard was on the ice with the depth forwards (so without McDavid or Draisaitl), the team posted a Corsi For percentage of 56 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 50 percent. When the depth players didn’t have Bouchard on the ice with them, these numbers fell below 48 percent. In previous seasons, these numbers were even worse. Bouchard is a big reason why the team has been able to outscore opponents when McDavid and/or Draisaitl are on the bench – an issue that plagued the team for years because of the incompetence of the front office and their inability to build an optimal roster.

Final Thoughts

While the cost to sign Bouchard was high, I would argue that it’s well worth it. He plays, and thrives, against elite opponents. The team consistently does better with him than without him when it comes to controlling the flow of play and scoring chances. And Bouchard has played a significant role in improving the team’s depth scoring.

Obviously, it would have been ideal to bring the cost of the contract down, but that would have required previous management regimes to identify his talents earlier on in his career and take on some risk. But that didn’t happen.

The good news is that Bouchard has a proven track record of being a positive influence on his team’s overall performance – helping drive offence on one end of the rink and keeping the puck away from the other end. He’s going to have his blunders that end up in the back of the net. But you have to remember the real, tangible impacts this player has on the team. And how difficult it would be to replace his exceptional attributes.

Bouchard is going to be a big part of the Oilers’ priming group that’s pushing for a Stanley Cup.

Data: PuckIQ, Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

What does Andrew Mangiapane bring to the Oilers?

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The Edmonton Oilers made a reasonable bet signing 29-year-old winger Andrew Mangiapane to two-year contract, with an annual average value of $3.6 million. He’s played over 500 NHL regular season and playoff games over his career and posted 257 points. The hope, according to Bowman, is that he fits into the top six at even-strength as a versatile forward and can contribute on the penalty kill.

The one concern with Mangiapane is around his overall point production, which has been steadily decreasing since his 2021-22 season when he finished with 35 goals and 20 assists in all situations as a 25-year-old. He went on to sign his three-year deal that paid him $5.8 million per year in 2022 but was traded after two seasons in 2024 to Washington for a draft pick. Calgary proactively shed the salary of an aging forward heading into free agency and likely recognized that a wrist injury incurred in the 2022-23 season impacted his point production. Mangiapane’s individual rate of shots on goal steadily declined, dropping from about eight shots per hour to below six per hour in the last two seasons.

Below is Mangiapane’s rate of points per hour at even-strength (5v5) by season. Since his high point in the 2021-22 season, his production has dropped by about 40 percent. So, while we may look at his last year in Washington as a down-year, it’s part of an overall trend for the player. One caveat to all of this is that he did play predominantly in the bottom six with guys like Lars Eller and Nic Dowd, which would have impacted his productivity. But it does make you wonder why Washington’s coaching staff never had him higher up in the lineup recognizing what his deficiencies were.

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While the production hasn’t been great, Mangiapane does have a solid track record now of having a positive influence on his team’s ability to outshoot and outchance opposing teams. So, while the productivity might be gradually slipping as he approaches 30, he’s at least helping his team tilt the ice in terms of puck possession and getting into those critical scoring opportunities. His teams always do better with him on the ice than without him, which indicates he could be a helpful play driver across different game situations.

The table below shows Mangiapane’s on-ice shot-differential numbers relative to his teammates. Being above zero means that Mangiapane outperformed the team average, which is impressive considering how strong his previous teams’ underlying shot-share numbers have been in Calgary and Washington. There has been a decline in these on-ice numbers since his wrist injury in 2022/23, but it hasn’t made Mangiapane any sort of liability on the ice. At least not yet.

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Considering his strong on-ice shot-share numbers, with and without talented players, Mangiapane should probably get a shot in the top six group to see if his production numbers and on-ice goal-share could bounce back. He’s a good replacement for Viktor Arvidsson, who also has a history of helping his team outshoot and outchance opposing teams. But the Oilers should also consider playing Mangiapane away from the star players to help the bottom six control the flow of play and prevent getting outscored when the top stars are on the bench. It’s a constant battle every year for the Oilers to prevent bad things from happening when the McDavid and Draisaitl are off the ice, and this season will be no different. Mangiapane should be able to alleviate these issues.

One other thing to note is that while Bowman did express his vision to have Mangiapane kill penalties, he only played 12 minutes short-handed last year in Washington. And the year prior to that in Calgary, he was barely a secondary option and didn’t post great numbers as the Flames allowed more shots with him on the ice. Something to consider when evaluating his potential roles this upcoming season and managing expectations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, PuckPedia

Also posted at Oilersnation.

What the Oilers might lose by moving on from Viktor Arvidsson

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Fair to say that the Edmonton Oilers front office will have a busy off-season. After a solid playoff run that again fell short, it’s imperative that they apply a critical lens, identify inefficiencies across the roster, and address the gaps to stay competitive.

Based on Stan Bowman’s recent media availability, it appears that the Oilers forward group will get the most attention from the front office. There’s likely going to be a push to shed some older players and make room on the regular roster for the few young prospects in the system. And there’s also the need to clear up cap space to sign key players such as Evan Bouchard and allocate dollars to address the goaltending.

One forward that the Oilers are currently looking to move on from is winger Viktor Arvidsson, as he’s in the last year of his two-year contract that pays $4 million this upcoming season. Arvidsson has had a solid career thus far, putting up 389 points in 612 games over eleven seasons. But this past regular season, his numbers slipped slightly as he put up 15 goals and 12 assists in 66 games (in all situations). At even-strength, Arvidsson ranked eighth among the Oilers forwards in terms of points per hour with 1.36. This was his lowest output since his rookie season.

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While it does make some sense to reallocate his dollars to address other parts of the roster, it’s important to highlight what the Oilers will lose if/when they trade Arvidsson away.

The first thing that stands out when assessing Arvidsson is the positive impact he tends to have on his team’s ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances. Consistently over his career, his teams tend to do better with him on the ice than without him when it comes to puck possession and expected goals metrics. This past season, for instance, his on-ice Corsi For percentage (55 percent) and Expected Goals For percentage (56 percent) were both fifth best among Oiler forwards behind McDavid, Hyman, Draisaitl and Podkolzin. More on this in a second.

The table below shows Arvidsson’s on-ice shot-differential numbers relative to his teammates. Being above zero means that Arvidsson typically outperformed the team average, which is impressive considering how strong the Oilers’ underlying shot-share numbers were this past season. This trend has continued since his time in Los Angeles, and there doesn’t appear to be a significant drop-off in his performance just yet.

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Slotting often into the top-six forward group, Arvidsson also played a chunk of his ice time against elite-level opponents and fared quite well. In 203 minutes at even-strength this season, Arvidsson’s Corsi For percentage against elite players was 57 percent – which ranked third among regular Oiler forwards. His Dangerous Fenwick, which is similar to expected goals, was at 59 percent and also one of the best on the team.

And while Arvidsson did play a lot with Draisaitl (394 minutes) and McDavid (82 minutes) at even-strength and posted great on-ice performance numbers with each of them, he also posted great numbers away from them. In 417 minutes without either of the star players on the ice with him this season, Arvidsson posted an on-ice Corsi For percentage of 53 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 51 percent. The actual results were a little lacking (48 percent goal-share, -1 goal differential), but that was also impacted by a lower-than-normal PDO of around 96.

One last thing worth pointing out is Arvidsson’s production in this year’s playoffs. He dressed for only 15 of the 22 games and finished 12th in even-strength ice time among forwards (164 minutes). But he did put up two goals and five assists in these limited minutes, which translates into a rate of 2.55 points per hour. That was the second highest among all Oilers forwards, only behind McDavid.

This isn’t to say Arvidsson is a perfect player — he’s not. But there’s going to be gaps that the Oilers will need to address if/when they move him out. He’s a reliable play driver who can play with and without a team’s best players. He can perform well against top-level competition. And he does have a history of relatively good production. These are things that the Oilers are likely cognizant of and will need to factor in when identifying and/or acquiring their replacement(s).

Teams that are considering acquiring Arvidsson would be getting a solid, experienced NHL winger. One that could help elevate a team’s ability to control the flow of play and increase their odds of outscoring opponents. They’d also be getting Arvidsson in a contract year, which could serve as a motivator for the player to keep his focus and hopefully productivity at the highest level. Arvidsson is also coming off a season where his on-ice PDO was close to 96, indicating that in the right situation, his rate of points could bounce back to his career levels. Definitely a buy-low candidate that could pay dividends for a team in tune with his underlying numbers and the Oilers’ desperation.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ, Puckpedia

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Losing the end game

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Disappointing end for the Edmonton Oilers who were defeated soundly by the Florida Panthers. After rolling through the western conference, dominating territorial play, and getting production from across the roster, the Oilers could not keep up with the Panthers. While there were some reasons for optimism after the first four games of the series, all of that was put to rest with the Panthers outscoring Edmonton 10-3 in games five and six. Florida had more high-quality players than Edmonton and controlled every facet of the game.

Here’s how the two teams compared in the final series at even-strength (5v5). The Panthers out-scored Edmonton 16-10 (a 62 percent goal-share), which aligned well with their underlying shot-share numbers. The Panthers titled the ice consistently, pouncing on the Oilers blunders, taking smart risks, sustaining pressure, and generating chances. And it was reflected in their Corsi for percentage (55 percent) and expected goals for percentage (57 percent) – just outstanding numbers which aligned with how they had performed in their first three rounds in the eastern conference.

The only time the Oilers were a threat against the Panthers at even-strength was when McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice together. They played 70 minutes (about 20 percent of the Oilers total time) and posted a Corsi For percentage of 59 percent and an Expected Goals for percentage of 57 percent – indicating that the Oilers controlled the flow of play and scoring chances. The issue was that they could not finish their chances, scoring only one goal and allowing five against (a goal-share of 16 percent). That’s far below the results we would expect from the top two players in the world, but that’s how things can go in a short tournament.

When the two stars were playing apart from one another (about 80 minutes of ice time), the team could not control the flow of play or scoring chances. And when neither player was on the ice (174 minutes, or 53 percent of the team’s total time), the Oilers were absolutely dreadful. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected goals for percentage were below 40 percent. Florida’s middle order and depth players completely dominated the Oilers and they were lucky to break even in goals. Again, Edmonton did not have enough high-quality players and by the end of the series the club looked gassed. While it was important to add experience to the roster, you could tell throughout the series that the team lacked speed and quick decision-making to handle the Panthers forecheck.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength in the six games against the Panthers. Only a handful of players posted on-ice shot-share numbers above 50 percent – just a dismal showing.

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Losing Hyman and having Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm injured played a big role in the Oilers overall performance and results. But there were a lot of self-inflicted problems as well. In goal, Edmonton knew what they had in Stuart Skinner as he has struggled to provide league-average goaltending for a few seasons now. On the back end, Edmonton knew what they had in Nurse and the negative impact he consistently has on his teammates and their on-ice numbers. And up front, Edmonton knew that more than a few depth players were posting negative on-ice shot-share numbers late in the regular season and in the first few rounds.

Begs the question – was the Oilers general manager ignorant to this information or just negligent?  And knowing that players like Nurse and Kane were struggling and making poor decisions and reads all over the ice, why was the coaching staff giving them more minutes at even-strength?

There are some very fundamental roster-construction strategies that the Oilers need to review this off-season. With a lot of inefficient contracts, aging players and major roster deficiencies, the Oilers have plenty of work to do. But they can’t approach it the same way they’ve done in the past. There has to be a focus on getting younger and quicker and being shrewder with contracts – especially for replacement-level players or those who struggle to have a positive impact on the team’s performance. While there’s a reputational risk of behaving this way, the Oilers have to be more focused on finding better players – not just those with personal connections to management or team personnel. The league is only getting more competitive, and the Oilers haven’t exactly loaded up on impactful prospects to keep pace. So, they’ll need a new approach to roster construction starting this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

How the Oilers and Panthers compare after the first four games of the finals

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It’s been a competitive series so far between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, and I don’t think it’d be surprising to see this go to seven games. It’s really going to come down to who makes the most blunders, the timing, and who does a better job at capitalizing on them.

Edmonton has a path to securing a championship here if they can stop taking thoughtless penalties and get some saves on the penalty kill. Over the four games, they’ve done a good job adjusting the lineup and combinations at even-strength, handling Florida’s tactics and getting decent production. Based on their performance and results, they have a good shot at getting to sixteen wins this post-season.

Florida has so far outscored Edmonton 18-14, thanks in large part to their powerplay success. Florida has done slightly better at even-strength (5v5), outscoring Edmonton 9-8. But if you factor in 4v4 time, the goals are even at 10 goals each. On the powerplay, it’s not as though the Panthers are generating a ton of high-quality chances. Their rate of shots has improved in the finals compared to earlier in the post-season, but it’s nothing spectacular. Based on expected goals, they should have only four power play goals. But because of the Oilers shaky goaltending shorthanded, Florida has seven (or three more than expected). And the Oilers powerplay is underperforming slightly based on expected goal models. They should have five powerplay goals, but only have four (and they also allowed a short-handed goal). In summary: the Oilers need their special teams to be better.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how the two teams have performed at even-strength (5v5) after four games. Note that the shot-share metrics are score-adjusted.

Florida is doing a better job at controlling the flow of play, as measured by the Corsi For percentage. But when it comes to scoring chances, it’s a lot closer with Florida having an edge. Edmonton’s lower-than-normal shooting percentage has cost them a goal or two. But their goaltending has saved them a few more than expected at even-strength. The Oilers expected goals against is 11, but they’ve only allowed nine. It’s just on the penalty kill where the Oilers goaltending has been poor. More on that in a minute.

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And here’s how the Oilers skaters have performed in the final series so far, and what their results have been. The skaters are split between forwards and defencemen, sorted by time on ice and have a heat map applied to show they compare with their teammates.

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One really encouraging sign is that McDavid and Draisaitl’s results are likely due for a market correction – which would be perfect timing. Both currently have a negative goal-differential despite driving play and spending more time in the offensive zone. Along with Perry and Nugent-Hopkins in the top six, they should be able to convert on more of their chances just based on the skill level they have and the results they’ve posted all season. The middle order of the forwards does need tweaking, and I think the coaching staff has something to work with Henrique and Frederic. They along with J. Skinner could be the right mix, as others like Brown, Janmark and Arvidsson have struggled playing against Florida’s middle order and their systems. I’d also strongly consider fading Kane’s minutes as he’s been a bit of a liability with the penalties he takes and the lack of positive input he’s had on the game. Florida seems to have figured the Oilers depth out, so it doesn’t hurt to make adjustments, especially when a lot of the Oilers forwards have experience playing with one another over the course of the regular season.

On the back end, Bouchard continues to shine with whoever he plays with. Walman and Klingberg have also performed well, but Klingberg’s on-ice results are difficult to ignore. I would expect him back in the lineup after a game-off, especially with Stecher not being able gain the coaching staff’s trust in game four. And not much to add about Nurse as he remains a liability and shouldn’t see top pairing minutes. He’s better suited in a depth role at this point as he tends to drag down the numbers of every Oilers player he’s on the ice with.

And here’s how the Panthers skaters have performed over the four games.

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The Oilers are doing a decent job at limiting the chances generated by the top line players like Reinhart and Verhaege, as well as Barkov whose performance numbers and results have been poor compared to what we’d expect from him. The Panthers second and third lines, which play a lot against Brown and Kane, as well as Nurse, have really taken advantage to control the flow of play and scoring chances. It’s clear that they’re using this middle order to target the Oilers weakest players. On the back-end, the Oilers should continue to target Forsling and Ekblad, as they tend to be on the ice for a lot of chances against. The Panthers are distributing the ice time quite well amongst the defencemen, but I do wonder if this group will wear out first as they take a lot of hits and haven’t rotated in a seventh defenceman yet.

Here’s how the goalies have performed this series, split by even-strength (5v5) and penalty kill and sorted by goals-saved-above-average. Pickard is giving the Oilers decent/average goaltending, which is more than what Skinner can provide at this point. As mentioned above, the Oilers goaltending has been fine at even-strength. It’s really on the penalty kill where they’ve struggled, with Pickard giving the team a better chance at winning games.

We’ll see what the Oilers coaching staff comes back with in game five in terms of lineup decisions and tactics.

Data: Natural Stat Trick